The investment bank estimates that in the worst-case scenario – gas at €400 per MWh – European households will pay €4 trillion more next year than in 2021: 30% of European GDP. At current prices, the bill would be 2 trillion billion. How to intervene? The proposal concerns a “tariff deficit” that allows the increase to be extended over 10-20 years. Suppliers should be allowed to securitize loans
Based on the current long-term gas price curve, Italian households are likely to receive accounts since about 500 euros per month. The monster figure is destined to continue to increase in order to surpass 590 euro – 402 for gas and 193 for electricity – in the event of a complete cessation of Russian flows, which still continue to flow at the border crossing Tarvisio but in a smaller amount by a third compared to the spring. The calculations are based on Goldman Sachswhich, in a report on the European energy crisis, warns that markets underestimation the consequences of this shock, which will be “even deeper than oil crisis of the 70s”. And takes Italy as an example.
Alberto Gandolfi and Mafalda Pombeiro, who signed the analysis, believe that in the worst case, gas 400 euros per MWh – European families next year will pay for heating and lighting their homes another 4 trillion euros compared to 2021, 30% of European GDP. At current prices, which see one-year futures on TTF in Amsterdam just over 220 euros / MWh, the bill will be 2 thousand billion. Always at current prices weight of energy in disposable income in Germany, Spain, France and Italy it will increase from an average of 8% in 2021 to 15% in 2022 and reach an incredible 23% in 2023. For citizens of the peninsula, the percentage is clearly higher given that per capita gross disposable income (also including government transfers) in 2021, according to the Treasury 22 600 Euro and the bills according to the previous estimates came to eat further 6 thousand euros per year.
How to intervene? Capping the price of electricity by “unhooking” the price of electricity generated from renewables from the price of gas, one of the proposals to be discussed Friday by European energy ministers, could save up to 650 billion euros to consumers: clearly partial relief. The investment bank makes another offer:tariff deficit”This allows to distribute growth of bills on the horizon of 10-20 years. It would be about establishing protected market tariffs for lower cost and share the costs, actually.
Also in this case, the graph included in the article refers specifically to Italy. And it shows how this type of intervention would gradually increase households’ paid bill, peaking at about 450 euros per month in 2040. On the contrary, in the current situation, the sting will arrive, apparently, already next year. Obviously, this hole must be filled in some way: Goldman’s hypothesis is to allow securitization (sale) of these loans so that they do not carry undue weight on the balance sheets dealers energy. It goes without saying that this would be an interesting business for financial operators.
Source: II Fatto Quotidiano