A Fitch Solutions consultant believes that Angola’s oil production will fall by 20% by 2031 due to the depletion of oil wells and a chronic lack of investment in new discoveries.
“The main reason for the mediocre growth in oil production is the inherited effect oil well maturation“, says Fitch Solutions in a comment about keeping production below the limit set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
“The drop in production from Angola’s current wells means that higher production growth rates are needed to maintain production at current levels; Angola needs more 36,000 barrels per day of production to offset the impact of natural decline”, – say analysts of this consulting company, owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings.
In a commentary sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, Fitch Solutions writes that “Angola has seen a modest increase in production with a few small projects starting up, but this quarter we forecast a slight increase in stagnant production, returning to negative growth in 2023with the materializing effect of falling wells.
Since the beginning of the year, Angola’s production has stood at around 1.1 million barrels per day, well below OPEC’s 1.5 million barrels per day limit.
“The new limit for Angola on total OPEC production is well above production capacity, and past growth rates indicate a very low likelihood that Angola will approach OPEC limits in the short term,” the analysts conclude.