Flight propensity for self-employed close to 70%: updated report on undeclared worsens estimates. Despite the (illusory) drop in absolute values

In 2020, the economic crisis caused by COVID-19 decreased, apart from tax revenues come into the treasury of the state, even the amount deducted from the treasury by those who do not pay what is due. As per update Report 2022 on unobserved savings and tax evasion, per year quarantine evasion of taxes and contributions stopped at 89.8 billion against 99.6 in 2019 and more than 102 in 2018: as few as ever. But that’s where the good news ends. Because 15 pages of new assessments by an expert commission chaired by Alexander Santoromodified for the latest data Istat on economic undergroundsay a propensity to flee from the gods Self employed and a little bit of enterprises and risen noticeably. They are given red alertespecially on days when Parliament votes for maneuver which includes ten forgive – not only for those who are in economic hardship, given that the special amendments of the opposition did not pass – and expand borders flat tax further preference for the self-employed over workers staff.

forIrpef from self-employmentin particular, the tax gap – i.e. the distance between the income collected and what would have been received had it not been for deceived treasury – rose to 69.7%: 0.6 points more than in 2019, one more than the first version of the report, published in early November after sitting in the Treasury drawer for more than a month. This means that autonomous almost 70% tax evasion which they had to pay. Not only that: the updated tables confirm that the vast majority of the gap (65.2% in 2020) depends on missed statements while only a small part (4.6%) is associated with missed payments on declared income, i.e. on those who “would like to pay, but cannot.” In 2020, this second case even decreased compared to the previous year, and “voluntarily” evasion increased.

ForAiresthe gap, according to the updated report, widened from 23.2% in 2019 to 24%. And also forVAT, which has been recovering in recent years thanks to electronic bills and separate payments, there has been a first deterioration, the gap widening by 0.8 points to 20.7%. Instead general inclination the gap narrows to 17.8%, net of property taxes and excises. 17.7%: the latter is the relevant indicator for the purposes of matching one of the recovery plan goalswhich requires narrowing the gap between expected returns and actual receipts. 15.8% in 2024. But the decline recorded in 2020 is insignificant, experts warn: “The effect is closely related to a significant potential tax cuts in 2020 after the pandemic shock. In fact, the reduction in the share of potential revenue from the most significant taxes (VAT and personal income tax from self-employment and entrepreneurship) implies a decrease in the weight of the tax gap of these taxes in the overall tax gap.” In short: it’s a fact abnormal associated with the specifics of the pandemic year. This does not mean that Italy is making progress in reducing tax avoidance, which indeed – in relation to expected returns – has increased for all “heavier” taxes in terms of income.

The trend, which, as indicated by the Accounts Chamber, will continue encouraged from the hundredth amnesties provided by the budget law. In addition, Meloni’s government maneuver increases the number of flat tax recipients to 15% despite this favorable treatment – according to a preliminary analysis. Financial department and some universities – defined in its current form “the influence self-selection of taxpayers with income and fees below the maximum income threshold, beyond which the regular personal income tax regime applies. In translation: income that would lead to the ceiling being exceeded is not declared.