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“There were opinions that real estate prices are falling. However, we cannot fully agree with this. It is true that some properties in some places have become cheaper by more than ten percent. However, if we look at the market as a whole, real estate prices have fallen very slightly,” says Jiri Sikora, mortgage alyst at Fincentrum & Swiss Life Select. No major changes are expected this year either.
“Price reductions will only be margil,” adds Sikora, adding that despite developers’ claims, a slight price reduction can still be expected in the case of new builds.
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“I do not expect Armageddon at the level of fil ownership of apartments. Real estate is often burdened with mortgages, and banks know how to deal with that,” Tomasz Raska, founder and majority owner of investment group Natland, told E15 newspaper in December.
The lack of motivation from banks to support business was reflected in the mortgage rates with which banks entered the new year. January’s average interest rate of 6.34% means mortgage prices are unchanged from December, according to the Fincentrum Hypoindex, when banks do not expect an influx of new rate-sensitive applicants.
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“We will have to wait until at least the third quarter of the new year for a significant decline,” says Mikhaela Pudilova, credit alyst at Broker Consulting. Even December brought a slight increase in prices. For example, according to the December Broker Consulting Index, average rates rose by two tenths of a percentage point compared to November. “In the near future, interest rates are likely to stop at the level that the Czech Natiol Bank has maintained for a long time,” predicts Pudilova.
At the same time, the possibility of discounting mortgage loans has already opened up for banks. Over the past two weeks, the costs of domestic banks to fince mortgage loans have dropped significantly. Interest rates in the interbank market are constantly falling, and the “price of money” for banks is declining, despite stable CNB interest rates and unpredictable future inflation. Thus, domestic fincial houses can fince customers’ mortgages at prices approaching the spring of last year.
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According to Thomson Reuters, banks paid about 4.8% per annum in the week before Sylvester to get ten years of money in the market. At the same time, this interest has so far fallen even below four percent. Banking “five-year plans” in December came out by almost 5.3 percent, now the interest has fallen to 4.3 percent. Thus, the costs of banks are almost a fifth lower.
At the same time, the end of last year marked the virtual collapse of the mortgage business, with mortgage loans disbursed falling more than 80 percent during November compared to the previous year.
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“Due to a significant drop in mortgage activity, according to Dataligence.cz, the number of transactions in the real estate market is also gradually decreasing. Despite this, prices remain largely stable,” recalled Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the Czech Banking Association, in the December issue of ČBA Hypomonitor. In total, Czech banks provided mortgage loans worth 163 billion kroons last year, which is sixty percent less than in the record year 2021.
Source: E15